Australia's data centre market cannot be described by a single number, and the published estimates do not agree with each other.
This is the index of what the evidence supports and where it contradicts itself. The exhibits below are drawn from the primer the pages are built on, and each one carries the publisher who produced the figure and the date it was current to. Where two sources answer the same question differently, both answers are shown with the basis each one measures, and the page behind them states which belongs in an investment case.
The groups are the questions a reader arrives with rather than the primer's own running order.
Where the published figures disagree
Four questions the sources answer differently. Both answers are set out below with the basis each one measures, and the page behind each says which belongs in an investment case.
Why do Australian data centre market size estimates differ so much?
Five research houses measure five different markets: the root cause of every conflicting headline
| Item | Value (A$) |
|---|---|
| IBISWorld J5921 only (2025) IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | 3.5 |
| IBISWorld J5921 + OD5323 (2026) IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | 5.6 |
| Arizton investment basis (2025) | 6.4 |
| IMARC solution + services (2025) IMARC (2026) | 7.3 |
| Mordor hyperscale-only (2026) Mordor Intelligence (Jan, Mar 2026) | 9.5 |
| House | Measures | Scope quirk | Headline (2025-26) |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBISWorld IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | Revenue (ANZSIC J5921 + OD5323) | Narrow hosting/colocation definitions | A$3.5bn + A$1.5bn |
| CBRE / JLL / Knight Frank / C&W / Colliers | Physical capacity (live, UC, planned MW) | Colocation + hyperscale-serviced; self-builds inconsistent | ~1.3-1.5 GW live (CBRE) |
| IMARC IMARC (2026) | Revenue, solution + services | Broadest scope; global-modelled | US$4.8bn (~A$7.3bn) |
| M3 Property | Occupancy: MW taken by users | Demand-side, not supply-side | 1,315 MW (2025) |
Does Australia have 1.35 GW or 2 GW of data centre capacity?
Nameplate MVA, gross site MW and deliverable IT MW, and which one an investment case should use.
- Nameplate MVA Apparent power at the connection: how site power is frequently quoted
- Less PUE and redundancy Power-usage effectiveness and redundancy are deducted
- Deliverable IT MW Investable capacity: the basis used throughout this report
Was AirTrunk bought at 21x or 87x EBITDA?
Both are 'right': they measure different denominators, and the gap is the whole valuation debate
| Item | Value (x) |
|---|---|
| Equinix / Metronode, 2018 Equinix (Apr 2018) | 16 |
| DigiCo / iseek, 2024 fwd | 19 |
| AirTrunk, contracted EBITDA, PwC | 21 |
| DigiCo / Global Switch AU, 2024 | 24.7 |
| AirTrunk, expected 2024 EBITDA, AFR/Reuters AFR via Reuters Breakingviews (5 Sep 2024) | 87 |
How much of Australia's announced data centre pipeline will actually be built?
Demand is real but overstated: contract conversion lags years behind announcements, and ~6 of 7 requested megawatts are phantom
| Pipeline measure | Figure | What it counts |
|---|---|---|
| AEMO connection requests (2025 IASR, national) | 44 GW | Every application, incl. speculative; Oxford Economics: ~6 of 7 MW phantom |
| Knight Frank pipeline (2025) Knight Frank (Apr 2025) | ~15 GW | UNVERIFIED (poor OCR; register item 3) |
| NSW project pipeline (Climate Council/DC Byte) Climate Council (Jun 2026) | 11.4 GW / 44 projects | Announced projects, all stages |
| M3 built-out trajectory (early 2030s) | ~9.5 GW | Delivered capacity incl. committed pipeline |
| AEMO Step Change requirement (2030) | ~6 GW | What system demand actually needs |
| Fully deliverable near-term (M3/Colliers) | ~25% of pipeline | Power, water, cost, lead-time, regulatory screens |
How large the market is, and how fast it is growing
The size of the thing on a stated basis, and the rate it compounds at to 2030.
| 2030 scenario | Operating capacity | Implied CAGR 2025-30 | Core revenue 2030 | Core driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0 GW | 29.9% | A$7.6bn | Net-generator costs + grid queues stall conversion; low end of the planning band |
| Base | 6.0 GW | 34.8% | A$8.8bn | 555 MW-class contracts convert; AEMO Step Change requirement is met |
| Bull | 6.22 GW | 35.7% | A$10.1bn | Every under-construction megawatt commissions and 35% of planned capacity converts |
- What is happening in the Australian data centre market?
The evidence, with every figure sourced and dated.
- What counts as the Australian data centre market?
Six segments share one power grid: retail colocation, wholesale colocation, hyperscale leased, hyperscale self-build, edge, and the AI-factory operators that emerged in 2025-26. The segment boundary decides which facilities a market estimate counts.
- How fast is the Australian data centre market growing?
Each figure with its publisher and vintage.
- Which Australian cities have the most data centre capacity?
Precinct-level detail for Sydney's five clusters, Melbourne's western corridor, and the Canberra, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Tasmanian markets.
- How much data centre capacity will Australia have in 2030?
- What will the Australian data centre market be worth in 2030?
What is contracting the capacity
Who signs for the megawatts, and what obliges some of them to sign for them here.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| CDC: US hyperscaler contract, May 2026 (555 MW, binding 10-yr min) | 555 |
| OpenAI: NEXTDC S7, Dec 2025 (550 MW, MoU, not yet a lease) | 550 |
| Firmus Southgate MEL ph.1, Mar 2026 (150 MW, contracted) | 150 |
| Sharon AI: NEXTDC expansion (50 MW, signed) | 50 |
- How much have the hyperscalers committed to Australian data centres?
The commitment ledger, contract by contract, with dates.
- What are Australia's data sovereignty rules for data centres?
The Hosting Certification Framework, the SOCI Act and the Whole-of-Government Cloud Computing Policy make sovereignty a demand guarantee for certified operators, and a live regulatory risk since the framework's reform was paused in November 2025.
Who holds the capacity
The operators, what each of them owns, and what the market pays for the two that are priced daily.
| Item | Value ( MW) |
|---|---|
| CDC Data Centres (AU) | 574 |
| AirTrunk (Australia) AirTrunk pages and release | 500 |
| NEXTDC (AU built) NEXTDC FY26 results (27 Aug 2026) | 278 |
| Hyperscaler self-builds | 150 |
| Stack Infrastructure | 72 |
| DigiCo | 57 |
- Who are the largest data centre operators in Australia?
AirTrunk and CDC dominate operating capacity with NEXTDC the listed third, and no audited share-of-megawatts series exists, so the shares here are triangulated and say so. Plus Equinix, DigiCo, DCI and Macquarie Data Centres.
- What is in Australia's data centre development pipeline?
Announced capacity is stated as announced, then discounted separately.
- Why does NEXTDC trade at such a high EBITDA multiple?
- How much is CDC Data Centres worth?
- How do Goodman and Stack make money from data centres?
Goodman recycles capital through partnerships against a global power bank measured in gigawatts, while Blue Owl explores a sale of Stack's APAC platform. The developer and private-credit models set out in numbers.
Whether the power can be secured
Grid access decides who builds, and the rules governing it changed during 2026.
Data centre electricity consumption, NEM (TWh). Source: Climate Council (Jun 2026); AEMO/Oxford Economics 2025 IASR report; ITK Research (May 2026); de Valence/Substack (Dec 2025); JLL (10 Mar 2026). As at 21 Sep 2026.
- Consumption
- ~3.9-4 TWh in FY2025 to ~12 TWh by FY2030 (25.1% p.a.) and ~34 TWh by FY2049-50
- Share of the NEM
- ~2% to ~6% by FY2030, and ~12% by FY2049-50
- Accelerated-AI case
- Sensitivity runs 40% higher post-2030
- CEFC/Baringa
- Central forecast: 4.7-7.4 GW of DC capacity by 2035, taking DCs to up to 11% of national consumption
| Item | NSW metro | Victoria |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 4 | 2 |
| 2030 | 11 | 8 |
| 2050 | 18 | 19 |
- How much electricity do Australian data centres use?
Grid connection, the mitigation toolkit, and why power access is now the industry's sorting mechanism.
- What are Australia's new data centre energy rules?
From 15 July 2026, large Australian data centres must become net generators of renewable energy. The national rules on visibility, cost recovery and technical standards, the NSW access schemes beneath them, and the legislative timetable.
What a megawatt costs to build and what it earns
Land, build cost per megawatt, the rent per kilowatt, and the yield those imply.
| Item | Value (A$) |
|---|---|
| AirTrunk MEL2, fitted hyperscale | 14.1 |
| NEXTDC S7, 550-612 MW basis | 12 |
| CDC Marsden Park, incl. 720 MW substation | 6.2 |
| Macquarie IC3 Super West, brownfield | 5.6 |
- What is data centre land worth in Australia?
The comparable sales and the yield-on-cost arithmetic.
- What does data centre colocation cost in Australia?
- What yields and cap rates do Australian data centres trade at?
What the assets trade for and how they are funded
Transaction evidence, the listed comparables, and the debt market standing behind both of them.
| Date | Deal | Value | Multiple / metric |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Equinix acquires Metronode | A$1.035bn | ~16x EBITDA; ~US$8m/MW |
| Jan 2019 | Brookfield acquires DCI from Blackstone | A$370m | n/d (8.6 MW base) |
| 2020 | Centuria acquires Telstra Clayton (sale-leaseback) | A$416.7m | 4.2% yield; 30-yr lease |
| 2020 | Macquarie consortium takes 88% of AirTrunk | ~A$3bn EV | entry before AI repricing |
| Mar-Apr 2024 | NEXTDC acquires Artarmon (S6) | A$184-202.4m | 6.5% analysed yield (vacant possession) |
| Apr 2024 | Macquarie Tech buys back IC2/IC3 from Keppel DC REIT | A$174m | n/d |
| Dec 2024 | Blackstone/CPPIB acquire AirTrunk | A$24bn EV | 21x contracted EBITDA (PwC) / ~87x expected 2024 EBITDA (AFR via Reuters Breakingviews) |
| Dec 2024 | HMC/DigiCo acquires Global Switch Australia | A$1.937bn EV | ~24.7x EBITDA (PwC; EBITDA basis not stated); ~4.05% implied earnings yield; ~A$28,500/sqm GFA |
- What have Australian data centres sold for?
- How can you invest in Australian data centres on the ASX?
- How are Australian data centres financed?
Debt is the sector's real ballot box and it is voting yes, in sustainability-linked format.
What would break the case
Ranked risks with the indicator that moves first, and the proof points already carrying a date.
- What are the risks in Australian data centre investment?
Ten risks, ranked, each with its early-warning indicator. Power, policy and phantom demand head the near-term cluster; obsolescence and demand-shift are the slow-burners that break a thesis rather than delay it.
- What should investors watch in Australian data centres next?
The next eighteen months are unusually information-dense.
How to read the figures
The measurement systems behind the numbers, the questions the record does not answer, and the register every figure traces to.
- How should these Australian data centre figures be read?
Three measurement systems, reconciled against company filings and system-operator data. Where they disagree the range is presented with the definitional cause named, derivations are labelled, and gaps are recorded rather than filled.
- What data is missing on the Australian data centre market?
Fifteen gaps in the public record, each with why it persists and how it constrains the analysis. None was filled by invention; where a gap affects a conclusion, the conclusion says so.
- What sources support this Australian data centre research?
Every source relied on, with publisher, date, title and locator. The complete register behind the figures on these pages.
The full primer
The figures above are drawn from the industry primer behind these pages, 85 pages, published as a PDF (download) with the underlying bottom-up market model as a workbook (download). Its source log runs to 121 entries, each carrying a publisher, a title and a locator, as at 21 September 2026. It is published in full at the source register.
The research is published by inashanu, a studio that produces fixed-scope market research for Australian private equity, priced and dated before work starts.
What a client receives is this primer in full: see the sample engagement, the catalogue and its prices, and the terms of engagement.
This standard, on your question. Six fixed-price deliverables, A$14,000 to A$45,000 excluding GST, opening at the A$14,000 market map in 10 business days. State the decision and the date it has to be made; the written assessment of whether the evidence base will carry it follows within two business days and carries no charge. Request a brief assessment.