Signals to watch: the next eighteen months are unusually information-dense
The next eighteen months are unusually information-dense. The signals, and the H2 2027 to FY28 proof points: NEXTDC's S7 Phase One, CDC's 555 MW delivery and the Stack APAC exit.
Catalyst calendar, Sep 2026 to H1 2027
Sep-Oct 2026
AirTrunk Singapore REIT prospectus & pricing
First public financials of the A$24bn platform
~Oct 2026
AEMC final technical standards, large inverter-based loads
Compliance cost clarity for connection applicants
Nov 2026
HCF reform, one year since certification pause
Certified Strategic moat: extended, tightened or eroded
Dec 2026
AEMO 2026 IASR request total vs 44 GW
Phantom-demand washout test
H1 2027
Net-generator legislation introduced
Transition relief = bear/base dividing line
The one-paragraph outlook
Where we land
Australia's data centre market enters 2027 with real, contracted, record-scale demand; a power system that cannot serve all of it; and a policy framework mid-construction that will decide whose megawatts count. The winners are already identifiable by what they hold: contracted tenants, secured power, funded balance sheets and certified-sovereign status. Everyone else is holding options, some valuable, most expiring. Our base case: ~6.0 GW operating and ~A$8.8bn core revenue by 2030, with the dispersion between powered and unpowered capacity, not market growth, the primary source of alpha.
Positioning checklist
Own deliverability: connection agreements, substations, certified status.
Underwrite contracted MW with investment-grade counterparties.
Price net-generator compliance into every model from 2027.
Treat MoUs as options; treat IASR queue positions as speculative.
H2 2027 to FY28 brings the proof points: S7 Phase One, CDC's 555 MW delivery and the Stack APAC exit
Catalyst calendar, H2 2027 onward (continued)
H2 2027
NEXTDC S7 Phase One target
OpenAI MoU credibility test; 612 MW planning basis
CDC 555 MW delivery begins; FY28 EBITDA >=A$1bn test
Contract economics become audited reality
Blue Owl / Stack APAC process resolution
>US$30bn exit depth test at peak
NSW large-load access scheme decisions
First prohibition resets land and pipeline values
Second 400 MW+ single-tenant contract
Confirms or denies the 555 MW trend
The numbers each test turns on
Positioning checklist (continued)
Watch the REIT window for the sector's first true public mark.
Constructive on powered, contracted capacity; sceptical of unpowered pipeline; watching policy drafts before underwriting any pre-connection project.
Sources
- inashanu synthesis
Related
- How much data centre capacity will Australia have in 2030?
- What have Australian data centres sold for?
- What are Australia's new data centre energy rules?
- What are the risks in Australian data centre investment?
The full primer is published as an 85-page PDF (download) with the underlying market model as a workbook (download).
This page is one of 30 in Australian data centres: the research, indexed by the question each one answers, with the four pages where the published sources disagree set first.
The research is published by inashanu, a studio that produces fixed-scope market research for Australian private equity, priced and dated before work starts. The sample engagement is this primer in full.
This standard, on your question. Six fixed-price deliverables, A$14,000 to A$45,000 excluding GST, opening at the A$14,000 market map in 10 business days. State the decision and the date it has to be made; the written assessment of whether the evidence base will carry it follows within two business days and carries no charge. Request a brief assessment · the catalogue and its prices.