Listed exposure is a barbell: a ~45x pure-play at one end, a discounted 'no-moat' REIT at the other
Listed exposure is a barbell: a roughly 45x pure-play at one end and a discounted REIT at the other. The September 2026 sell-off, with NEXTDC down about 14% in a month, is the stress test for how that exposure behaves.
How to read the barbell
Priced on conversion of contracted MW; sensitive to AI capex headlines and not to current earnings.
Priced on stabilised assets and cap rates; sensitive to rates and lease quality; trades near/below NTA.
CDC's quarterly independent valuations give a private-mark mark-to-market the others lack: it re-rated +A$4.5bn in two quarters while listed peers wobbled.
Listed vehicles: the barbell in detail
| Vehicle | Exposure | Scale | Valuation marker | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXTDC (NXT) | Pure-play colocation/hyperscale | ~A$8.7bn | EV/EBITDA ~45x; EV/Rev ~22x | 565 MW forward order book; consensus target ~A$20 (strong buy) |
| Goodman (GMG) Goodman FY26 (20 Aug 2026) | Developer; DCs 78% of WIP | ~A$52.6bn | 8.2% forecast yield on cost | 6.4 GW global power bank; WIP A$19.7bn at 30 Jun 2026 |
| DigiCo (DGT) | Stabilised-asset REIT | NTA A$3.80/security | FY26 uEBITDA guide A$120-125m | Morningstar FV A$3.40, 'no moat'; sold Chicago US$750m |
Watch
AirTrunk's Singapore REIT prospectus (~Sep-Oct 2026, if it proceeds) would be the first audited window into the sector's largest private platform (revenue, EBITDA, WALE, capex) and an instant repricing reference for every listed name.
The September 2026 wobble (NXT -14% in a month, 52-week range A$10.91-17.84) is the stress test: listed DC exposure trades as an AI-sentiment proxy first and an infrastructure asset second
Other listed routes to the theme (n/d = not disclosed)
| Vehicle | Exposure | Scale | Valuation marker | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratil (IFT) | 49.72% of CDC | CDC stake A$9.21bn | CDC ~40% of portfolio value | Purest listed exposure to the 555 MW contract economics |
| Macquarie Tech (MAQ) | Sovereign-niche operator | n/d | n/d | Certified Strategic; 42% of federal workloads claim |
| Telstra / HMC / Stockland / Centuria | Partial exposure | n/d | n/d | Legacy assets; DGT manager; EdgeConneX JV; Clayton/AI-F1 |
The listed scoreboard (September 2026)
NXT: the stress test on one price scale, A$ per share
Sources
- MarketScreener NXT quote, as at live page, retrieved 21 Sep 2026
- Motley Fool, as at 9 Sep 2026
- Goodman FY26, as at 20 Aug 2026
- Mingtiandi, as at 16 Jul 2026
- Kalkine, as at 24 Aug 2026
- The Bull, as at 17 Sep 2026
- Quantfolio, as at 19 Jul 2026
- Mingtiandi, as at May 2026
- Kalkine, as at Aug 2026
Related
- Why does NEXTDC trade at such a high EBITDA multiple?
- What have Australian data centres sold for?
- What are the risks in Australian data centre investment?
- Was AirTrunk bought at 21x or 87x EBITDA?
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