Five research houses measure five different markets: the root cause of every conflicting headline
Five research houses publish five different 2025 numbers for Australian data centres, from A$3.5bn to A$7.3bn, because they measure five different things. What each house counts, the scope quirk in each, and why the bars cannot share an axis.
What each house actually measures · houses 1-4 of 5
| House | Measures | Scope quirk | Headline (2025-26) |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBISWorld IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | Revenue (ANZSIC J5921 + OD5323) | Narrow hosting/colocation definitions | A$3.5bn + A$1.5bn |
| CBRE / JLL / Knight Frank / C&W / Colliers | Physical capacity (live, UC, planned MW) | Colocation + hyperscale-serviced; self-builds inconsistent | ~1.3-1.5 GW live (CBRE) |
| IMARC IMARC (2026) | Revenue, solution + services | Broadest scope; global-modelled | US$4.8bn (~A$7.3bn) |
| M3 Property | Occupancy: MW taken by users | Demand-side, not supply-side | 1,315 MW (2025) |
the longest sustained period of demand growth exceeding supply growth since records began in 2005
What we do about it
- 1. Revenue questions Answered on IBISWorld/IMARC definitions, presented as a range (Section 02).
- 2. Capacity questions Answered in IT MW on the ITK/CBRE basis, with M3's built-out figure shown separately (Sections 02, 03).
- 3. Market-share questions Answered with explicit triangulation caveats; no audited share-of-MW series exists (Section 07).
- 4. Pipeline questions Discounted for phantom demand using AEMO/Oxford Economics before any figure is relied on (Section 05).
Methodology heritage
Take-up exceeded new supply in both 2023 and 2024. That record-long series is why Australian capacity data, though definable differently across houses, is unusually deep.
2025 revenue estimates span A$3.5bn to A$7.3bn, a 2x range driven by scope, not disagreement about demand
Published market-size estimates · 1 of 2
| Source (date) | Base size | Forecast | CAGR | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBISWorld, Cloud Hosting & Data Processing (J5921) IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | A$3.5bn 2025 (+9.8% YoY) | A$4.1bn 2026 | 7.6% (2020-25) | Revenue, narrow |
| IBISWorld, Internet Hosting Services (OD5323) IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | A$1.5bn 2026 | +10.8% in 2025-26 | 9.2% (2021-26) | Revenue incl. colocation |
| IBISWorld data storage (via M3, Sep 2024) IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | A$5.2bn FY2023 | 8.2% p.a. next 5 yrs | 5.6% prior 5 yrs | Revenue |
| IMARC (2026 edition) IMARC (2026) | US$4.8bn 2025; US$3.7bn 2020 | US$8.2bn 2034 | 5.47% (2026-34) | Revenue, broad solution+services |
| Arizton via R&M (Feb 2026) | US$4.22bn 2025 | US$9.02bn 2031 | 13.52% | Investment |
2025-26 market size, A$bn
| Item | Value (A$) |
|---|---|
| IBISWorld J5921 only (2025) IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | 3.5 |
| IBISWorld J5921 + OD5323 (2026) IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) | 5.6 |
| Arizton investment basis (2025) | 6.4 |
| IMARC solution + services (2025) IMARC (2026) | 7.3 |
| Mordor hyperscale-only (2026) Mordor Intelligence (Jan, Mar 2026) | 9.5 |
Reading the chart
Reading the chart. Source: IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026); IMARC (2026); Arizton via ResearchAndMarkets (Feb 2026); Mordor Intelligence (Jan, Mar 2026); Arizton via PR Newswire (9 May 2024). As at 21 Sep 2026.
- Comparability
- Bars are NOT like-for-like: scope ranges from narrow hosting (IBISWorld J5921) to broad solution+services (IMARC) and hyperscale-only (Mordor).
- Basis
- The Arizton bar counts investment spend; the other four count revenue, and no conversion joins the two.
- Currency
- US$ figures converted at the IMARC-implied 0.66 USD/AUD (inashanu conversion)
Three distinct markets hide inside these rows
Published market-size estimates · 2 of 2 · n/d = not disclosed
| Source (date) | Base size | Forecast | CAGR | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mordor Intelligence (Jan 2026) Mordor Intelligence (Jan, Mar 2026) | 3,530 MW 2025 | 7,180 MW 2030 | 15.25% | Capacity, not revenue |
| Mordor, hyperscale segment (Mar 2026) Mordor Intelligence (Jan, Mar 2026) | US$6.27bn 2026 | US$16.18bn 2031 | 20.88% | Hyperscale revenue |
| Arizton 2024 vintage (9 May 2024) | n/d | US$7.71bn by 2029 | 3.22% | Pre-AI-boom vintage; investment basis |
Mordor: capacity path (MW)
- 3,530 MW 2025 base
- 7,180 MW 2030 forecast
Mordor: hyperscale revenue (US$bn)
- US$6.27bn 2026 base
- US$16.18bn 2031 forecast
Three markets, one table
CAGRs from 3.2% to 20.9% map directly onto those scope choices and forecast vintage.
Sources
- IBISWorld, as at Oct 2025, Mar 2026
- CBRE Global Data Center Trends, as at 24 Jun 2025
- IMARC, as at 2026
- M3 Property, as at 18 Nov 2025
- Colliers Research/DC Byte via M3 Property
- Arizton via ResearchAndMarkets, as at Feb 2026
- Mordor Intelligence, as at Jan, Mar 2026
- Arizton via PR Newswire, as at 9 May 2024
- Arizton via PR Newswire (9 May 2024). US$/A$ comparability flagged in the chart on page 11
Related
- Does Australia have 1.35 GW or 2 GW of data centre capacity?
- What counts as the Australian data centre market?
- How fast is the Australian data centre market growing?
- What data is missing on the Australian data centre market?
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