Revenue follows capacity with a lag: A$7.6-10.1bn core revenue by 2030 across scenarios
Revenue follows capacity with a lag: A$7.6bn to A$10.1bn of core revenue by 2030 across the scenarios, plus the seven signals that would move the market between bear, base and bull.
Three revenue paths from the A$5.6bn 2026 base, A$bn
Bear A$7.6bn
Base A$8.8bn
Bull A$10.1bn
Investment scenarios
Investment scenarios. Source: inashanu estimates; Arizton investment basis, Feb 2026 edition via ResearchAndMarkets, retrieved 21 Sep 2026, bases on page 13; CDC (6 May 2026); NEXTDC FY26 (27 Aug 2026); Oxford Economics via API Magazine (8 Sep 2026); Gadens via EcoGPT (4 Dec 2025). As at 21 Sep 2026.
- Bear case
- Sees the A$46bn slip 2-3 years.
- Bull case
- Adds Firmus-class private debt (US$10bn) at scale.
Method (all inashanu estimates)
A$5.6bn core 2026 revenue (IBISWorld J5921 A$4.1bn + OD5323 A$1.5bn).
Bear 8% sits on the IBISWorld realised revenue floor (7.6% for J5921, 2020-25; 9.2% for OD5323, 2021-26). Base 12% and bull 16% are inashanu estimates on that same services-revenue basis, set between that floor and the highest published rate measured on revenue, Mordor's 20.88% hyperscale series for 2026-31. Arizton's 13.52% for 2025-31 counts investment spend on IT, electrical, mechanical, cooling and general construction, US$4.22bn (2025) to US$9.02bn (2031); those endpoints imply 13.50% and Arizton prints 13.52%. It corroborates the direction of the build and sets no rate here, because the workbook declares no conversion from an investment CAGR to a revenue one (Assumptions A51).
Revenue and EBITDA are tested on one denominator, deployed MW. CBRE Sydney 250-500 kW pricing, US$177.5/kW/month at 0.66 USD/AUD, is A$3.23m/MW/yr (Market_Sizing B46; Q1 2025) against the A$2.00m/MW/yr CDC contracted EBITDA anchor (B47; 6 May 2026). Revenue exceeds EBITDA, as the stated rule requires, and the residual reads as a 62.0% asset margin (B48) beside 61.4% filed by NEXTDC on FY26 net revenue. The A$8.8bn core series cannot serve as the numerator: the ANZSIC classes book no wholesale leasing, so dividing it by every operating MW would put a stated-scope numerator over a whole-of-market denominator.
Scenario migration watchboard: seven signals that would move the market between bear, base and bull
Signals 01-06 of 07, signal 07 continues on the next page
MoU -> lease announcement
Adds up to ~0.6 GW bull capacity; validates MoU pipeline generally
Prospectus + pricing vs A$24bn 2024 EV
First public mark on private platform economics; equity window opens/closes
Early 2027
Transition relief breadth decides bear vs base for unconnected projects
Any announcement
Confirms CDC 555 MW was a trend, not an outlier
vs 44 GW in 2025
Falling = speculative washout (healthy); rising = queue deadlock (bearish)
CBRE quarterly
Continued decline = global capex discipline arriving in AU with a lag
The thresholds behind the signals
Sources
- inashanu estimates. Growth bracketed by IBISWorld (Oct 2025, Mar 2026) and Mordor, as at Mar 2026
- Arizton investment basis, Feb 2026 edition via ResearchAndMarkets, retrieved 21 Sep 2026, bases on page 13. Cross-check: CBRE, as at Q1 2025
- CDC, as at 6 May 2026
- NEXTDC FY26 (27 Aug 2026). Investment: CBRE via de Valence, as at Dec 2025
- Oxford Economics via API Magazine, as at 8 Sep 2026
- Gadens via EcoGPT, as at 4 Dec 2025
- inashanu synthesis
Related
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